How do you solve a problem like the Old Firm?

This past weekend Celtic hammered Aberdeen 9-0. The Old Firm have long been the dominant force in Scottish Football, winning the Scottish League in it’s various formats 95 times out of the 114 times the Scottish title has been contested. In recent years the pattern has only been broken by Aberdeen who were the last non-Old Firm team to win the league in the 1984/85 season and by Hearts who broke the 1st and 2nd place monopoly in the 2005/06 season. While the divide between Scotland’s top two and the rest of the pack has been apparent for a while, Celtic’s 9-0 victory has only accentuated the problem.

Along with more silverware and marketability, the Old Firm also boast a much larger support then their rivals. So far in the 2010/11 season the average attendances for the SPL are as follows:

Team - Pld - Total - Highest - Average - Capacity - Pct

1 Celtic (2) - 6 - 297226 - 58874 - 49538 - 60832 - 81.4%

2 Rangers (1) - 5 - 224940 - 46109 - 44988 - 50444 - 89.1%

3 Heart of Midlothian (6) - 6 - 81911 - 15637 - 13652 - 18008 - 75.8%

4 Hibernian (11) - 5 - 67820 - 17767 - 13564 - 17500 - 77.5%

5 Aberdeen (9) - 5 - 55185 - 15307 - 11037 - 22199 - 49.7%

6 Dundee United (4) - 5 - 42932 - 11790 - 8586 - 14209 - 60.4%

7 Kilmarnock (7) - 5 - 29449 - 8645 - 5890 - 18128 - 32.4%

8 Motherwell (3) - 6 - 33514 - 9207 - 5586 - 13742 - 40.6%

9 Inverness C T (5) - 6 - 30994 - 7547 - 5166 - 22199 - 23.2%

10 St Mirren (12) - 6 - 27892 - 5674 - 4649 - 11125 - 41.7%

11 St Johnstone (8) - 6 - 27041 - 6866 - 4507 - 10673 - 42.2%

12 Hamilton Academical (10) - 5 - 16175 - 5356 - 3235 - 5300 - 61.0%

(Thanks to http://itv.stats.football365.com/dom/SCO/PR/attend.html)

This is of course just another in a long line of examples. The point remains the same: The Old Firm have outgrown the SPL. There have been two options discussed. The first and probably more favourable option is that Celtic and Rangers join an ‘Atlantic League’ where top teams from nations with small professional leagues like Scotland, Portugal, Netherlands and Scandinavia for example, would form a league that could earn them higher TV revenues. I cannot see this idea ever getting off the ground. For one, most of the teams would take a financial hit by losing out on a place in a European competition. Also, the chances of UEFA ever agreeing to this are slim as it undermines the Champions League and the Europa League. The fixture list in such a league alone would be a logistical nightmare when you consider the travelling time and costs of the clubs and fans involved.

Option 2 is that they join England’s Premier League. The average attendances so far this season in the Premier League show that Celtic and Rangers would be up there with the Premier Leagues bigger clubs:

Team - Pld - Total - Highest - Average - Capacity - Pct

1 Manchester United (2) - 6 - 451275 - 75285 - 75213 - 75769 - 99.2%

2 Arsenal (3) - 6 - 360148 - 60086 - 60025 - 60432 - 99.3%

3 Manchester City (4) - 5 - 231996 - 47393 - 46399 - 48000 - 96.6%

4 Newcastle United (5) - 5 - 231461 - 51988 - 46292 - 52387 - 88.3%

5 Liverpool (9) - 6 - 260264 - 44722 - 43377 - 45362 - 95.6%

6 Chelsea (1) - 5 - 207861 - 41828 - 41572 - 42055 - 98.8%

7 Sunderland (8) - 6 - 235706 - 41709 - 39284 - 49000 - 80.1%

8 Everton (11) - 5 - 187528 - 39673 - 37506 - 40394 - 92.8%

9 Aston Villa (14) - 5 - 186794 - 40688 - 37359 - 42551 - 87.7%

10 Tottenham Hotspur (7) - 5 - 178807 - 35967 - 35761 - 36310 - 98.4%

11 West Ham United (20) - 5 - 168812 - 34589 - 33762 - 35647 - 94.7%

12 Wolverhampton Wndrs (19) - 5 - 137659 - 28582 - 27532 - 28525 - 96.5%

13 Stoke City (17) - 5 - 133057 - 27372 - 26611 - 28384 - 93.7%

14 Fulham (13) - 6 - 151238 - 25643 - 25206 - 26600 - 94.7%

15 Birmingham City (15) - 6 - 147375 - 27333 - 24563 - 30009 - 81.8%

16 Blackburn Rovers (16) - 6 - 146830 - 25869 - 24472 - 31367 - 78.0%

17 West Bromwich Albion (10) - 6 - 141812 - 25625 - 23635 - 28003 - 84.4%

18 Bolton Wanderers (6) - 6 - 130818 - 25171 - 21803 - 28723 - 75.9%

19 Blackpool (12) - 5 - 78850 - 16116 - 15770 - 9491 - 166.1%

20 Wigan Athletic (18) - 6 - 93139 - 17100 - 15523 - 25138 - 61.7%

(Thanks to http://itv.stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/attend.html)

With the added income they’d receive from the various television deals the Premier League has secured, I have no problem believing that Celtic and Rangers could compete with the Premier Leagues bigger clubs within a couple of seasons of their joining and although they would probably lose out on a place in European competition (at first at least), playing better teams on a weekly basis could only improve them. It may not be such a bad thing for the rest of the SPL either. With the Old Firm gone the rest of the teams could compete in a more even league and could possibly benefit from games in the Champions League or the Europa League.

The thing is, there are for more negatives then positives in this idea. For Celtic and Rangers themselves it would mean losing out on vital Champions League money and there is no guarantee that they would be able to hold their own against not only the so called ‘big 4’ but also teams like Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Everton who are already established in the set up and are already competing for the Europa League spots (and of course there is the possibility that any of the 3 aforementioned teams could take Liverpool’s spot in the ‘big 4’). The SPL would also suffer as a result of the defection. None of the remaining teams would have the resources to compete in Europe and without Celtic and Rangers the SPL looks less appealing to any potential television companies.

Two more teams in the Premier League isn’t something that many English clubs are willing to consider either as it could cost them a spot in the Premier League and therefore cost them money, which was shown when Phil Gartside’s proposal of a two-tiered Premier League was soundly rejected. In November 2009 the Premier League released the following statement:

"Bolton Wanderers submitted a discussion paper detailing ideas concerning the restructuring of the Premier League into two tiers with the inclusion of Celtic and Rangers,"
"The clubs welcomed the additional input into an ongoing process, however, they were of the opinion that bringing Celtic and Rangers into any form of Premier League set-up was not desirable or viable.
"The other relevant ideas contained within Bolton's paper will now be taken forward as part of the wider strategic review being undertaken by the Premier League since November 2008 with the aim of providing recommendations before December 2010."

Premier League Chief Executive Richard Scudamore, on BBC Radio 5 Live added:

"As regards to Celtic and Rangers it's a non-starter. So we've made a clear and unequivocal statement and we're going to move on from there. No means no.
"The clubs constitutionally voted to say we're not going to take this any further, Celtic and Rangers are not coming in."

It seems more and more unlikely that such a move is ever likely to benefit either the Premier League or the SPL and I’m sure the Premier League still has the Rangers fans rioting in Manchester when they consider any decision. In my opinion the only way to go would be a full merger of the English and Scottish league systems with anything below the Championship split into Northern and Southern feeder Leagues as is the case in non-league football. The English and Scottish teams could also compete for their respective FA and League Cups. Travelling should not be a problem in this day and age for clubs and supporters alike when you consider last season in the Championship which saw Plymouth Argyle and Newcastle United play each other home and away with little problem. According to Google directions, by car, from Old Trafford, Manchester to Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow is 220 miles and would take around 3 hours 43 minutes. Compare this to the distance between Old Trafford to Fratton Park, Portsmouth which Manchester United have made over previous seasons which is 242 miles which would take around 4 hours 16 minutes. This is without looking to the example of international leagues where clubs regularly make longer trips to fulfil fixtures.

This idea, though simple, would still not satisfy everybody. Clubs from both sides of the border would bemoan losing league positions and the money they bring, while the Scottish FA have long held a fear that if the Leagues were to merge they would no longer be independent and FIFA would insist on a Great Britain national team rather then separate nations. It simply comes down to timing. The only opportunities that have ever been there for a merger were when the professional league systems were being formed in the early 19th century and in 1992 with the formation of the Premier League. The possibility of a radical overhaul is fast disappearing but with December 2010 and UEFA’s Financial Fair Play rules approaching maybe it needs to be seriously considered one last time.